Analisis Estimasi Produksi Padi Berdasarkan Fase Tumbuh dan Model Estimasi Arima (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) Menggunakan Citra Landsat 8 di Kabupaten Sukoharjo dengan Visualisasi Web-GIS

Darmawan, Arif and , Jumadi, S.Si. M.Sc. Ph.D (2019) Analisis Estimasi Produksi Padi Berdasarkan Fase Tumbuh dan Model Estimasi Arima (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) Menggunakan Citra Landsat 8 di Kabupaten Sukoharjo dengan Visualisasi Web-GIS. Skripsi thesis, Universitas Muhammadiyah Surakarta.

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Abstract

Rice is a cultivated plant which is needed by Indonesian population as a daily food source. This fact is making rice become one of the most important commodities and has strategic value in indonesia. An integrated, production monitoring which is conducted regularly, objectively, accurately and can be utilized widely is needed as an effort to respond the food security issues. The alternatives are remote sensing by technology approach, ARIMA time series statistical analysis, and Web-GIS. Integrating all of them the monitoring of rice plantscan be effectively. Sukoharjo Regency is the most ideal agricultural area as a pilot monitoring area characterized by the highest value of rice productivity in Central Java. The purposes of this research are to analyze the distribution of rice area based on the growing phase using Landsat 8 imagery, to analyze the estimated value of the rice productivity based on the ARIMA model and visualize the estimation, the growth phase distribution and the productivity of rice plants in Sukoharjo District using Web-GIS. This research uses descriptive analysis method with a survey approach. The sampling method used is Purposive Sampling method for the survey of rice growing phases and Stratified Random Sampling method for rice productivity. Based on the results of Landsat 8 imagery processing in identifying growing phase distribution using the NDVI model and MSAVI, MSAVI can be determined as the best model through a simple linear regression process with a determinant coefficient of 0,729 (having an influence value of 73%) and NDVI 0,698 (having an effect value of 70%) . From the MSAVI model, the results of the identification 9 phases of growing paddy plants with phase 2 (formation of tillers) were identified as the widest phase of 3532,44 hectares or about 16.3% of the total harvested area. While the estimation of rice productivity based on the ARIMA model (1,1,1) with a series of data from 1982-2018, obtained an estimation of productivity of 72,67 quintals per hectare, the estimated production in phase 2 can be calculated (tillering) of 25669,17 tons with an estimated harvest time of 13-14 weeks from the date of recording Landsat 8 L1 images April 15, 2019, the same thing is applied to the other 8 phases identified. Based on these results it is visualized using Web-GIS by utilizing Leaflets. JS as a library of JavaSrcipt in building Web-GIS. The Web-GIS feasibility test results showed very good criteria with a 100% functionality test, 100% usability test and 84% portability tes. Keywords: Rice, Growing Phase, MSAVI, NDVI, ARIMA, Web-GIS

Item Type: Karya ilmiah (Skripsi)
Uncontrolled Keywords: Keywords: Rice, Growing Phase, MSAVI, NDVI, ARIMA, Web-GIS
Subjects: G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > G Geography (General)
Divisions: Fakultas Geografi > Geografi
Fakultas Geografi > Geografi
Fakultas Geografi > Geografi
Depositing User: ARIF DARMAWAN
Date Deposited: 18 May 2019 09:24
Last Modified: 18 May 2019 09:26
URI: http://eprints.ums.ac.id/id/eprint/73637

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