Analisis Pengaruh Curah Hujan Terhadap Fluktuasi Hasil Produksi Tanaman Padi Das Bengawan Solo Hulu Bagian Tengah Tahun 1986 - 2045

Asmoro, Ambar and , Dra. Alif Noor Anna, M. Si. and , Drs. Munawar Cholil, M. Si. (2016) Analisis Pengaruh Curah Hujan Terhadap Fluktuasi Hasil Produksi Tanaman Padi Das Bengawan Solo Hulu Bagian Tengah Tahun 1986 - 2045. Skripsi thesis, Universitas Muhammadiyah Surakarta.

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Abstract

Climate change has become one of the causes of the presence of meterologis disasters in various parts of the world. Indonesia felt the impacts due to climate change indicated the rainy season and the dry season erratic. The result did not affect the survival impact regardless of human life the one regarding food security. Bengawan Solo River watershed upstream of the middle is the activity of the food sector is dominated by rice farming. Therefore, this study was carried out with the purpose to know the phenomenon of annual precipitation in 1986-2014 and the analysis of influence of rainfall trend towards padi production 1986-2045. The methods used are secondary data analysis. The data used time series data of annual rainfall and the rice production in 1985-2014. The results showed that during the years 1986-2014 occurs 5 times wet years i.e. in 1986, 1995, 1998, 1999, and 2010 with the number of wet months more than dry months with disfference at least 2 months. The dry years of the events occurred as much as 6 times i.e., 1990, 1991, 1997, 2001, 2002, and 2003 with the number of months to dry more than wet months. In addition that year, then a normal year events occur as many as 18 times. Long-term trend analysis through minimum squares indicate that the prediction of rainfall during the year 1986-2045 decline, while rice production is increasing. As for the short-term trend analysis through the 3 annual moving average between rainfall and annual rice production yield generates 4 patterns such as 1st pattern, 2nd pattern, 3rd pattern, and 4th pattern. The 1st pattern forms rainfall patterns rising rice production to rise. This is due to the abundance of water sources for irrigation of rice. The 2nd pattern forms rainfall patterns rising rice production declined. This is due to the flood, stormwind, tungro, and brown planthopper attack. The 3rd pattern forms declining rainfall pattern of rice production to rise. This is due to the functioning infrastructure of irrigation to irrigate the rice deficit when rain water. The 4th pattern of rainfall patterns form a declining rice production declined. This is due to the existence of a catastrophic drought.

Item Type:	Karya ilmiah (Skripsi)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	perubahan iklim, BMKG, analisis trend, moving average
Subjects:	G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GE Environmental Sciences
Divisions:	Fakultas Geografi > Geografi Fakultas Geografi > Geografi Fakultas Geografi > Geografi
Depositing User:	AMBAR ASMORO
Date Deposited:	16 Jan 2017 06:21
Last Modified:	16 Jan 2017 06:21
URI:	http://eprints.ums.ac.id/id/eprint/48344

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