Penerapan Simulasi Monte Carlo Memprediksi Persediaan Barang Jadi di UMKM Pia Nyah Solo

Putri, Siti Chayaning and , Arinda Soraya Putri, S.T., M.T (2024) Penerapan Simulasi Monte Carlo Memprediksi Persediaan Barang Jadi di UMKM Pia Nyah Solo. Skripsi thesis, Universitas Muhammadiyah Surakarta.

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Abstract

UMKM Pia Nyah Solo is an UMKM engaged in food processing in the city of Surakarta. The object of this research focuses on bakpia with choco and mix variants. The problem experienced is the uncertainty of the amount of inventory of goods or finished products. The purpose of this study is to forecast the amount of inventory with existing demand data with monte carlo simulation, and to compare the results and accuracy of different forecasting methods. The simulation results show that the total demand for the choco variant is 6683 boxes and the total demand for the mix variant is 5586 boxes. With an average demand for the choco variant of 303 boxes and 230 boxes for the mix variant. The accuracy test level for the choco variant produces a MAD value of 55.8; MSE of 5434; MAPE of 18%, for the mix variant the MAD value is 52.9; MSE of 4748.3; and MAPE of 19%, indicating that Monte Carlo simulation has a good level of accuracy compared to other methods. The accuracy level of the lowest forecasting method of the Single Moving Average method with period 3. Thus, Monte Carlo simulation is better at representing actual conditions.

Item Type:	Thesis (Skripsi)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	accuracy level, forcasting, Monte Carlo Simulation, uncertainty
Subjects:	T Technology > TI Industrial Engineering
Divisions:	Fakultas Teknik > Teknik Industri
Depositing User:	SITI CHAYANING PUTRI
Date Deposited:	19 Nov 2024 01:53
Last Modified:	19 Nov 2024 03:36
URI:	http://eprints.ums.ac.id/id/eprint/128708

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