Dampak Pemilu Terhadap Stabilitas Makroekonomi di Indonesia Tahun 2018-2024

Kusumaningrum, Aristya Ayu and -, Inda Fresti Puspitasari, S.Pd., M.Sc. (2025) Dampak Pemilu Terhadap Stabilitas Makroekonomi di Indonesia Tahun 2018-2024. Skripsi thesis, Universitas Muhammadiyah Surakarta.

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Abstract

This study aims to examine the short-run relationship between major macroeconomic variables the Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG), inflation, exchange rate, and foreign exchange reserves and political dynamics during Indonesia’s 2018–2024 election period. Using the Vector Autoregression (VAR) model with Impulse Response Function (IRF) and Variance Decomposition analysis, this study identifies market reactions to political and policy uncertainty. The estimation results show that all variables are stationary at the first difference and the VAR model is stable. Political shocks cause temporary volatility in IHSG, inflation, and exchange rates, while foreign reserves remain stable. This study concludes that election related uncertainty only affects the economy in the short-run. The originality of this paper lies in integrating multiple macroeconomic indicators into a single dynamic model to assess Indonesia’s economic resilience during political cycles.

Item Type:	Thesis (Skripsi)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	election, macroeconomics, political uncertainty, policy uncertainty
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HC Economic Development
Divisions:	Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis > S1 Manajemen
Depositing User:	ARISTYA AYU KUSUMANINGRUM
Date Deposited:	20 Nov 2025 07:57
Last Modified:	20 Nov 2025 07:57
URI:	http://eprints.ums.ac.id/id/eprint/139763

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