Novianto, Danis and , Hamim Zaky Hadibasyir, S.Si., M.GIS (2023) Pemanfaatan Prediksi Perubahan Lahan Sawah Menggunakan CA-Markov untuk Evaluasi terhadap Rencana Tata Ruang Wilayah (RTRW) dan Lahan Pertanian Pangan Berkelanjutan (LP2B) di Kabupaten Sukoharjo. Skripsi thesis, Universitas Muhammadiyah Surakarta.
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Abstract
The increase in population in Sukoharjo Regency every year will have an impact on the availability of paddy fields which is shrinking due to the conversion of paddy fields to non-paddy fields. This is the reason for the high demand for built-up land to support residents' activities in carrying out economic, social and cultural life. Therefore, it will have an impact on reducing rice production from 339,45 thousand tons in 2019 to 310,78 thousand tons in 2020. The aims of this research are: 1). predict changes in paddy field use in 2029 using CA-Markov modeling; 2). Testing the accuracy of the prediction model for changes in paddy field results from the CA-Markov modeling; 3). Analyze the factors that influence the change from paddy fields to non-paddy fields. 4). Evaluating the suitability of changes in the use of paddy field predictions in 2029 against the LP2B and RTRW of Sukoharjo Regency. The results of this study, namely (1). The use of paddy fields is predicted to experience a change in land use to non-paddy fields or land conversion to built-up land in 2029 so that paddy fields experience a decrease of 27,50 km2 and non-paddy fields experience an addition of 27,51 km2 and the prediction results for 2029 are 123,86 km2 paddy fields and 369,68 km2 of non paddy fields. (2). The accuracy value of the prediction model for paddy field use in 2019 produces an area of 152,59 km2 and non-paddy field area of 339,95 km2 with an overall accuracy level of 82% so that it is not exactly the same as the processing results of the tentative land use classification of 219,15 km2 and 273,39 km2 with an overall accuracy level of 88%. (3). Driving factors are needed in modeling land use change transitions using the MLP method on selva/set idrisi software as seen from the Cramer's V test such as road variables, residential centers, rivers, slopes and settlements. (4). The prediction model for land use in 2029 with the RTRW obtained 311,10 km2 or 63.09% is in accordance with spatial use directives and 179,56 km2 or 36,41% is not in accordance with spatial use, while the suitability level of paddy field use in 2029 with An LP2B area of 82,39 km2 is suitable and an area of 78,29 km2 is not suitable for the LP2B area of Sukoharjo Regency. Keywords: Prediction of land use, CA-Markov, Driving Factors, RTRW Sukoharjo Regency, LP2B Sukoharjo Regency
| Item Type: | Thesis (Skripsi) |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Prediksi penggunaan lahan, CA-Markov, Faktor Pendorong, RTRW Kabupaten Sukoharjo, LP2B Kabupaten Sukoharjo |
| Subjects: | G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > G Geography (General) G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GB Physical geography |
| Divisions: | Fakultas Geografi > Geografi Fakultas Geografi > Geografi Fakultas Geografi > Geografi |
| Depositing User: | DANIS NOVIANTO |
| Date Deposited: | 15 May 2023 01:35 |
| Last Modified: | 15 May 2023 01:35 |
| URI: | http://eprints.ums.ac.id/id/eprint/111663 |
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